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1026 days since election day.
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The Inverse Wave: Crunching the Idaho Election Numbers
Submitted by Sisyphus on Thu, 11/18/2010 - 5:37pm.
This post is meant to buttress the contention that Idaho Democrats should jettison, deep six, kill, eradicate, eviscerate and otherwise ignore the notion that running Democratic candidates against the Democratic party as a game winning strategy. And since Alan at IdaBlue likes it, let's refer to it as the "self loathing strategy". Its a well known Republican trap which the last cycle demonstrated as a failure. Democrats need to target independents and other non-voting demographics to make up for high Republican voting bloc in crimson Idaho.
In addition to the foregoing posts on the subject pertaining to Allred's race and Minnick's race, the self loathing strategy suppresses base participation in elections. Despite early predictions of record turnouts, this election actually had low voter participation with only 58% of registered voters sending a ballot and below 40% of eligible voters engaged in the process. That's the lowest since 1978. Now the question is who sat it out and why?
Serephin expressed his desire to see more numbers, and, lo, the blog interstices delivers. Indeed in three separate posts they seem to hear our plea, not only for numbers, but graphs to illustrate the points. First voter turnout.
In another post, they graph four separate factors documenting low Democratic turnout. This is the inverse wave that led directly to Democratic losses this election.
I think the Grant/Minnick comparison is overemphasized and has serious distinctions. But pay close attention to the comparison of Allred's performance and Obama's in Idaho two years before. Party poobahs were bragging at our massive caucus participation and how that would vault us into winning territory because we were signing up lots of newbs. Yet no such translation occurred. interstices blames this on systemic failure by the party after analyzing the legislative district votes in Boise City.
I agree that it was systemic, not just from lack of focus on the top of the ticket in the second congressional district, but from a common inability for the party to get the resources necessary to help campaigns out with GOTV efforts. Those two legislative races Democrats lost in District 18 were exceptionally tight. I'd also highlight the fact that Branden Durst was one of the few pro-life Democrats which may have diminished his appeal to pro-choice Democrats in blue Boise. Neither was it the fault of just party poobahs unless they gave the blessing for Allred, Minnick, and Olson campaigns to run away from being a Democrat. Its the self loathing message, stupid. The fact that these campaigns ran embarrassed at being Democrats certainly wasn't welcoming to Idaho Democratic rank and file. They failed to provide a reason for Democrats to go to the polls. Why should they vote for candidates who don't seem interested in having them for constituents.
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